I have no doubt in my mind that I would lose to Sandy Alderson in a game of poker. He crunches numbers (a long with his uber-smart front office), he reads markets, and he is among the best in the sport at not tipping his hand. 

Raise your hand if you saw the Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers trade coming. (crickets)

Did most baseball pundits see Carlos Beltran being worth one of the best pitching prospects in baseball? Nope, but he sure was traded for one in Zack Wheeler. 

And currently, many of those same people point to Jose Reyes being a sure-fire goner. Hold your horses. Whether or not he does inevitably leave, give the front office a chance. 

Sure, the 2011 season was not overtly successful. The Mets lost more games than they won. But, it also gave me every reason to believe that Alderson knows exactly what he is doing and has a vision to bring this team to a point of long term sustainable success. And, just because he is not making headlines by being the most aggressive pursuer of Reyes, there is difference between being the aggressor and the winner.

But, if you read a variety of Mets columnists and beat writers, there is a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction among many (though to be clear, not all) of them. 

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York -  ”If the ultimate verdict with Reyes is a calculated baseball decision, so be it. But shame on the Mets if he departs and it is primarily  payroll-constraint induced.”

Joel Sherman, of the New York Post ”The Mets insist they want to retain Jose Reyes, but at their reasonable price, and well, they should really stop saying that.

It is akin to going into a Mercedes dealership, badly wanting a new model and telling a salesman you are willing to go as high as $5,000 to get one.” 

Matt Cerrone and Michael Baron at Mets Blog have been good at responding to these claims. For a good example, read this Mets Blog post by Cerrone. 

To me, the most frustrating part about the current complaints with the Mets pursuit of Reyes is that the gripes are impatient. What has Sandy Alderson done wrong to warrant the Hatorade cooler being dumped on his head? He has done nothing but sit down and let the market develop, without blindly calling before he sees the flop.

Unfortunately, people who avidly follow the Mets are used to this. As Mets fans, or people who cover the Mets, we have grown accustomed to the fact that every column by Kevin Rosenthal, Jon Heyman and Buster Olney will include the newest tidbit about what top-tier free agent the Mets are pursuing. Now, all of those columns are about what teams are pursuing the Mets’ top-tier free agent. 

A few years ago, with Omar Minaya as GM, it was a media inevitability that the Mets would sign Jason Bay OR Matt Holiday. Not if. Before that, we knew to expect big trades like for Johan Santana or Carlos Delgado. And, if the media perceived a hole in the team, whether it was in the lineup or bullpen, the Mets would surely fix it by signing Billy Wagner or Carlos Beltran. After all, the rumors said it was going to be happen. 

For those years, the Mets dominated the hot stove. The media knew what Minaya wanted, everybody knew he would spend money, and with enough money, he was skilled enough to get what he wanted. But, the fact that everybody knew this was what he wanted, and he was expected to get it, it inherently drove up the price.

Should Alderson apologize for avoiding that?

When he took over, I believe we all knew to expect something different. I think most people were fine with the wait-and-see approach of last off-season because we were eager for a change from the strategy of throwing big bucks at whoever people thought the team was supposed to show the money. 

Sherman likens this strategy that the Mets have employed with Reyes as trying to buy a new Mercedes for $5,000. Find me an article saying the Mets just offered Jose Reyes a two-year $20 million deal, and I’ll accept that the Mets are cheapskate low-ballers.

But, in fact, I think he is doing the opposite. Reyes knows he is in for a giant payday; any initial offer would be a low-ball. The front office is avoiding that because regardless of what the Mets offered at this point, I imagine Reyes would shop himself to other teams and figure out what he is worth. If there were only one Mercedes left in the dealership, Alderson is saying, let me know what the other four guys in the shop will pay for it, and I’ll talk it over with my wife and see if we think that’s most prudent for the family right now. 

More than anything — more than being a scout, or some type of numbers crunching SABR-slut — Alderson has a keen understanding of markets. He knows the value of what he has, what he should spend and what he wants. And, he keeps all of it close to his chest. He showed this, more than anything this year. 

Just look at the Beltran and K-Rod deals. 

The point is, there is this growing dissatisfaction with the front office because they aren’t going for some balls out pursuit of Reyes. And realistically, there is a good chance that he signs elsewhere. But, there is also a good chance he resigns with the Amazins. When all is set and done, I’d be surprised if after he tests the market and receives offers, the Mets do not get a chance to match or respond to whatever his highest offer is. This is not to say they will match it, but I think it makes sense for everybody involved to give the Mets that opportunity. It’s not as if the two parties had a falling out - he still lives with his family in New York, where his career started and he is loved. 

At least, I personally, am not going to write him or the front office off before the dust clears. Right now, there is just a giant fuss because the team isn’t kicking the dirt around in the way we’re used to as media and fans. 

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I have a Twitter. It’s cool. Follow @andrewlbeaton

flipflopflyball:

Mark Svartz is the funniest person I know. He did this.

metsingaround:

Thanks to Darren from The 7 Line for this picture!

soupsoup:

God Bless Buckner

metsfansforlife:

Howard Johnson’s first professional at bat in 17 years. @ Provident Bank Park, home of the Rockland Boulders.

sportsnetny:

Jose Reyes hugs Jason Isringhausen by Michael G. Baron on Flickr.

oldtimefamilybaseball:

Oh yeah, just the ole fake to first, run down the very fast baseballer and tag him out move. Yeah, seen it a hundred times. 

If you sped this up and looped it, you could almost hear Yakity Sax in your head. Just awesome. Sorry Maybin.

One heavily discussed topic of late is how a number of players on the Mets have something to prove. If not something to prove, they are in a nebulous area where it is unclear whether they deserve to be starters, platoon players, bench players, or some combination of the three. 

Unfortunately one of those is Daniel Murphy, who regularly looks uncomfortable in the field but was showing why he belongs in the bigs with his bat this year, hitting .320 in just under 400 ABs prior to going down for the season with a leg injury. 

Another one is Mike Pelfrey. Once a top draft pick and an annual tease on the hearts of Mets fans, he sometimes looks like he could be a very good middle of the rotation starter and innings-eater, while sometimes the 6-foot-7 righty looks more lost than talented.

A third is Angel Pagan who had a miserable start to the season hitting .159 in April prior to hitting the disabled list. He has been inconsistent since but has the potential to hit well from both sides of the plate, be athletic in the field, steal bases and provide pop as he has shown with long balls in two consecutive games entering play yesterday. 

Which directions could these three guys go? Below is a career comparison - a favorable one and an unfavorable one - for each of these three players, showing how these three players with their skill-sets could head in such different directions.

Daniel Murphy

Jason Philliips (unfavorable) - Remember him? He played the majority of the Mets’ games at 1B in 2003 and catcher in 2004. At 27 years old in 2003, he batted 5th in about half of his plate appearances and finished the season hitting .298 with an .815 OPS. Middle-of-the-order linchpin of the future, right? Wrong - in 2004, he hit .218 with a measly amount of power and was subsequently traded to the Dodgers for the man, the myth, Kazuhisa Ishii. Like Murphy, he was never particularly deft in the field but led fans to ignoring that through his strong 2003 season that seemingly showed he was a good enough major league hitter to make up for it. Hopefully Murphy is a better hitter - and he probably is - but the risk still exists for putting too much faith in a guy who hasn’t played a full season and doesn’t have a definite position.

Dmitri Young (favorable) - Now, not everybody would like to be favorably compared to Dmitri Young, the man who is listed on FanGraphs as weighing 298 lbs. Realistically though, if Murph’s career ends up like Young’s, he and fans should both be happy. In the 10-year span from 1998-2007 with the Reds, Tigers and Nationals, Young played above 100 games in eight of those seasons. Twice, he was an All-Star and regularly hit near .300 with an OPS above .800. In the 2003 season with the Tigers, he hit .297 with 29 HRs and a .909 OPS - numbers I think any fan would take from a full season of Murphy. Like Murphy, Young was a poor fielder with no clear position, playing 1B, 3B, LF and RF but made up for it by being a consistently good hitter. 

Mike Pelfrey

Kris Benson - Once upon a time, Kris Benson was the first pick of the MLB draft. With an ERA lower than 4.00 just once in his career, he was still always able to sell teams on the fact that he had potential, and stayed in the league through last year because of that. Every time he made a good start, he was finally starting to scratch his potential but every time he pitched poorly it was some catastrophic regression. Realistically, it probably just meant he was mediocre through and through. Pelfrey as he is now is a servicable Major League starter, just like how Benson was for the majority of his career. But people always expected Benson to be more because he was a top pick and the same has happened to Pelfrey - even if he may be a decent back of the rotation starter, he may never be the opening day front line guy that the Mets once expected him to be. 

Derek Lowe - Lowe’s career has been many places, and Pelfrey’s career path will never follow it exactly. Lowe was an elite closer in 2000, and transitioned to being a full-time starter afterwards. That said, as a starter Pelfrey ideally could end up like Lowe. He has had his ups and downs as a starter - 21 wins in 2002 with a 2.58 ERA with only 14 in 2004 at a 5.42 clip - but has always been a reliable rotation piece since then even if he hasn’t been an ace. I don’t think even the most ardent of the Big-Pelf-Optimists expect him to be an ace, but if he could be the type of sinker-balling-innings-eater-who-gets-the-job-done-even-without-striking-guys-out type of pitcher that Lowe has been for the Dodgers and Braves since 2005, he’d be an important part of any winning Mets club.

Angel Pagan 

Coco Crisp - Crisp is far cry from a bad player, but he is also a distance away from what many expected he could be. Once a big up-and-comer for the Red Sox and then the Indians, he has never turned out to be more than talented, athletic, but mediocre. He hasn’t hit more than 10 HRs since 2005 or knocked in more than 60 RBIs. He’s a very good defender, which makes it worth putting him in the lineup everyday. Pagan isn’t quite there yet defensively - he often takes bad routes and misplays balls - but he may get there with his athleticism. Yet, in terms of skills at the dish Pagan will ultimately be a disappointment if he cannot have a better career at the plate than Crisp. He showed the potential for being better last season, but with his regression in 2011 it seems far from a sure thing. 

Shane Victorino - Love him, or more probably hate him because he’s on the Phillies, Victorino embodies a lot of qualities that Pagan could and should if he reaches his potential. Although Victorino had a down year last year at the plate, from 2006 though this year he has effectively used his athleticism at the plate and in the field. He won a Gold Glove the last three seasons and consistently seems to hit a touch below .300 with some pop and speed - 10 or more HRs  and 25 or more SBs every year since ‘07. Ignoring their differences in grit and intangible qualities, if Pagan could become the type of defenisve and offensive threat that Victorino is, which he seems to have the tools to do, Pagan would have a great career. 

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Fair or unfair, couldn’t Murphy, Pagan and Pelfrey go in those respective directions? Maybe through moves (or lack of moves) by the Mets during the 2011 off-season, we’ll see which direction Alderson and the front office thinks these players will go. 

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yagottabelieve:

Not trying to depress everyone again

Kinda looks like Johnny Galecki here, better known as Rusty Griswold in Christmas Vacation.