If Jose Reyes isn’t on the Mets next season, leaving via free agency or traded for prospects, the front office should seriously consider getting rid of David Wright, Johan Santana, and others too.

Let’s take a step back.

Four weeks ago, I dished out my thoughts on the merits of trading vs. keeping Jose Reyes. In case you don’t feel like rereading it, the point – in short – was that unless they are blown away with a package of prospects, Reyes is the sort of luxury a big budget team like the Mets can afford to have, even if he is inevitably going to be overpaid.

This is the sequel to that, in which I’ll discuss what the team should do iff (if and only if) they trade Reyes or let him walk; I’m not advocating that course of action, I’m explaining its consequences. I think this is the type of sequel like The Dark Knight was to Batman Begins, so even though it’s far more grim (even I can’t believe I’m trying to logically explain why in some scenario it might make sense for three of my favorite players to wear different uniforms), and probably slightly too long, you’re happy for having read it because it brings up some interesting ideas.

To me, losing Reyes whether it is via trade or free agency is a signal that the Mets are entering a rebuilding mode. Not just rebuilding for another year, but for two or three. Over the long run, the $15 million or so that would be spent on the dynamic shortstop annually could definitely be spent better: on the draft, farm system, better starting pitching and so forth.

Those benefits, while very real, are only tangible beginning a few years from now, not in 2012 or 2013. And, over these next years, the approximated $15 million can’t be spent much better – an exciting, homegrown talent whose athleticism lends itself to a large ballpark like Citi Field both offensively and defensively is far preferable to whatever that same money buys in terms of free agents.

Thus, it seems to me that getting rid of Reyes is an indication the team will not be a serious playoff contender over the next couple seasons. And, if we’re not winning in 2012 or 2013, why hold onto and pay Wright and Santana?

Johan Santana is currently 32. Next year and the year after - the last years of his contract before the team has a $5.5 million buyout of his $25 million option in 2014 - are probably the two best years left of his career after he spends the rest of this season recovering and building strength back up from rotator cuff surgery. It’s an unsure process that will probably make him untradeable at this deadline, but this off-season? It’s worth finding out. Nobody will want to pay him his full salary over the next couple seasons, but if the Mets are willing to eat some of that contract I’d bet the buyers will be plentiful.  

Come this off-season, Wright will turn 29. A few years down the road, his best years will start be behind him. His swing has clearly been affected by the pressure of hitting home runs in large confines of Citi Field and while his heart, dedication and willingness to be the face of a struggling franchise are beyond admirable it really seems like he could benefit from some sort of change, perhaps one of scenery.

I guess my idea is, if we’re going to rebuild: why half-ass it?

The core of Reyes-Wright-Santana was built to be at its best through the length of Santana’s contract, give or take a year or two depending on when the players start hitting their decline. If they commit to dismantling that by rebuilding and letting Reyes go, they’ll have a tough time winning next year and the year after, though I can’t say exactly what Sandy Alderson has planned. Maybe he has some tricks up his sleeve that makes all of this moot, but we’ll see. 

In the years after that, Santana and Wright (less so, but still to a significant degree) will not be part of the future winning solution. So, in this scenario, wouldn’t it make sense to trade all of them and get value while they can? And be locked and loaded around Ike Davis, Jon Niese and a farm system that has been infused with young talent from the trades, the existing talent and improved draft strategy under the careful management of Alderson and his crew? It’s heart-breaking to admit, but it might be true. 

But, all things being considered, I still hope they hold onto Reyes. 

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