I have no doubt in my mind that I would lose to Sandy Alderson in a game of poker. He crunches numbers (a long with his uber-smart front office), he reads markets, and he is among the best in the sport at not tipping his hand. 

Raise your hand if you saw the Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers trade coming. (crickets)

Did most baseball pundits see Carlos Beltran being worth one of the best pitching prospects in baseball? Nope, but he sure was traded for one in Zack Wheeler. 

And currently, many of those same people point to Jose Reyes being a sure-fire goner. Hold your horses. Whether or not he does inevitably leave, give the front office a chance. 

Sure, the 2011 season was not overtly successful. The Mets lost more games than they won. But, it also gave me every reason to believe that Alderson knows exactly what he is doing and has a vision to bring this team to a point of long term sustainable success. And, just because he is not making headlines by being the most aggressive pursuer of Reyes, there is difference between being the aggressor and the winner.

But, if you read a variety of Mets columnists and beat writers, there is a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction among many (though to be clear, not all) of them. 

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York -  ”If the ultimate verdict with Reyes is a calculated baseball decision, so be it. But shame on the Mets if he departs and it is primarily  payroll-constraint induced.”

Joel Sherman, of the New York Post ”The Mets insist they want to retain Jose Reyes, but at their reasonable price, and well, they should really stop saying that.

It is akin to going into a Mercedes dealership, badly wanting a new model and telling a salesman you are willing to go as high as $5,000 to get one.” 

Matt Cerrone and Michael Baron at Mets Blog have been good at responding to these claims. For a good example, read this Mets Blog post by Cerrone. 

To me, the most frustrating part about the current complaints with the Mets pursuit of Reyes is that the gripes are impatient. What has Sandy Alderson done wrong to warrant the Hatorade cooler being dumped on his head? He has done nothing but sit down and let the market develop, without blindly calling before he sees the flop.

Unfortunately, people who avidly follow the Mets are used to this. As Mets fans, or people who cover the Mets, we have grown accustomed to the fact that every column by Kevin Rosenthal, Jon Heyman and Buster Olney will include the newest tidbit about what top-tier free agent the Mets are pursuing. Now, all of those columns are about what teams are pursuing the Mets’ top-tier free agent. 

A few years ago, with Omar Minaya as GM, it was a media inevitability that the Mets would sign Jason Bay OR Matt Holiday. Not if. Before that, we knew to expect big trades like for Johan Santana or Carlos Delgado. And, if the media perceived a hole in the team, whether it was in the lineup or bullpen, the Mets would surely fix it by signing Billy Wagner or Carlos Beltran. After all, the rumors said it was going to be happen. 

For those years, the Mets dominated the hot stove. The media knew what Minaya wanted, everybody knew he would spend money, and with enough money, he was skilled enough to get what he wanted. But, the fact that everybody knew this was what he wanted, and he was expected to get it, it inherently drove up the price.

Should Alderson apologize for avoiding that?

When he took over, I believe we all knew to expect something different. I think most people were fine with the wait-and-see approach of last off-season because we were eager for a change from the strategy of throwing big bucks at whoever people thought the team was supposed to show the money. 

Sherman likens this strategy that the Mets have employed with Reyes as trying to buy a new Mercedes for $5,000. Find me an article saying the Mets just offered Jose Reyes a two-year $20 million deal, and I’ll accept that the Mets are cheapskate low-ballers.

But, in fact, I think he is doing the opposite. Reyes knows he is in for a giant payday; any initial offer would be a low-ball. The front office is avoiding that because regardless of what the Mets offered at this point, I imagine Reyes would shop himself to other teams and figure out what he is worth. If there were only one Mercedes left in the dealership, Alderson is saying, let me know what the other four guys in the shop will pay for it, and I’ll talk it over with my wife and see if we think that’s most prudent for the family right now. 

More than anything — more than being a scout, or some type of numbers crunching SABR-slut — Alderson has a keen understanding of markets. He knows the value of what he has, what he should spend and what he wants. And, he keeps all of it close to his chest. He showed this, more than anything this year. 

Just look at the Beltran and K-Rod deals. 

The point is, there is this growing dissatisfaction with the front office because they aren’t going for some balls out pursuit of Reyes. And realistically, there is a good chance that he signs elsewhere. But, there is also a good chance he resigns with the Amazins. When all is set and done, I’d be surprised if after he tests the market and receives offers, the Mets do not get a chance to match or respond to whatever his highest offer is. This is not to say they will match it, but I think it makes sense for everybody involved to give the Mets that opportunity. It’s not as if the two parties had a falling out - he still lives with his family in New York, where his career started and he is loved. 

At least, I personally, am not going to write him or the front office off before the dust clears. Right now, there is just a giant fuss because the team isn’t kicking the dirt around in the way we’re used to as media and fans. 

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I have a Twitter. It’s cool. Follow @andrewlbeaton

One heavily discussed topic of late is how a number of players on the Mets have something to prove. If not something to prove, they are in a nebulous area where it is unclear whether they deserve to be starters, platoon players, bench players, or some combination of the three. 

Unfortunately one of those is Daniel Murphy, who regularly looks uncomfortable in the field but was showing why he belongs in the bigs with his bat this year, hitting .320 in just under 400 ABs prior to going down for the season with a leg injury. 

Another one is Mike Pelfrey. Once a top draft pick and an annual tease on the hearts of Mets fans, he sometimes looks like he could be a very good middle of the rotation starter and innings-eater, while sometimes the 6-foot-7 righty looks more lost than talented.

A third is Angel Pagan who had a miserable start to the season hitting .159 in April prior to hitting the disabled list. He has been inconsistent since but has the potential to hit well from both sides of the plate, be athletic in the field, steal bases and provide pop as he has shown with long balls in two consecutive games entering play yesterday. 

Which directions could these three guys go? Below is a career comparison - a favorable one and an unfavorable one - for each of these three players, showing how these three players with their skill-sets could head in such different directions.

Daniel Murphy

Jason Philliips (unfavorable) - Remember him? He played the majority of the Mets’ games at 1B in 2003 and catcher in 2004. At 27 years old in 2003, he batted 5th in about half of his plate appearances and finished the season hitting .298 with an .815 OPS. Middle-of-the-order linchpin of the future, right? Wrong - in 2004, he hit .218 with a measly amount of power and was subsequently traded to the Dodgers for the man, the myth, Kazuhisa Ishii. Like Murphy, he was never particularly deft in the field but led fans to ignoring that through his strong 2003 season that seemingly showed he was a good enough major league hitter to make up for it. Hopefully Murphy is a better hitter - and he probably is - but the risk still exists for putting too much faith in a guy who hasn’t played a full season and doesn’t have a definite position.

Dmitri Young (favorable) - Now, not everybody would like to be favorably compared to Dmitri Young, the man who is listed on FanGraphs as weighing 298 lbs. Realistically though, if Murph’s career ends up like Young’s, he and fans should both be happy. In the 10-year span from 1998-2007 with the Reds, Tigers and Nationals, Young played above 100 games in eight of those seasons. Twice, he was an All-Star and regularly hit near .300 with an OPS above .800. In the 2003 season with the Tigers, he hit .297 with 29 HRs and a .909 OPS - numbers I think any fan would take from a full season of Murphy. Like Murphy, Young was a poor fielder with no clear position, playing 1B, 3B, LF and RF but made up for it by being a consistently good hitter. 

Mike Pelfrey

Kris Benson - Once upon a time, Kris Benson was the first pick of the MLB draft. With an ERA lower than 4.00 just once in his career, he was still always able to sell teams on the fact that he had potential, and stayed in the league through last year because of that. Every time he made a good start, he was finally starting to scratch his potential but every time he pitched poorly it was some catastrophic regression. Realistically, it probably just meant he was mediocre through and through. Pelfrey as he is now is a servicable Major League starter, just like how Benson was for the majority of his career. But people always expected Benson to be more because he was a top pick and the same has happened to Pelfrey - even if he may be a decent back of the rotation starter, he may never be the opening day front line guy that the Mets once expected him to be. 

Derek Lowe - Lowe’s career has been many places, and Pelfrey’s career path will never follow it exactly. Lowe was an elite closer in 2000, and transitioned to being a full-time starter afterwards. That said, as a starter Pelfrey ideally could end up like Lowe. He has had his ups and downs as a starter - 21 wins in 2002 with a 2.58 ERA with only 14 in 2004 at a 5.42 clip - but has always been a reliable rotation piece since then even if he hasn’t been an ace. I don’t think even the most ardent of the Big-Pelf-Optimists expect him to be an ace, but if he could be the type of sinker-balling-innings-eater-who-gets-the-job-done-even-without-striking-guys-out type of pitcher that Lowe has been for the Dodgers and Braves since 2005, he’d be an important part of any winning Mets club.

Angel Pagan 

Coco Crisp - Crisp is far cry from a bad player, but he is also a distance away from what many expected he could be. Once a big up-and-comer for the Red Sox and then the Indians, he has never turned out to be more than talented, athletic, but mediocre. He hasn’t hit more than 10 HRs since 2005 or knocked in more than 60 RBIs. He’s a very good defender, which makes it worth putting him in the lineup everyday. Pagan isn’t quite there yet defensively - he often takes bad routes and misplays balls - but he may get there with his athleticism. Yet, in terms of skills at the dish Pagan will ultimately be a disappointment if he cannot have a better career at the plate than Crisp. He showed the potential for being better last season, but with his regression in 2011 it seems far from a sure thing. 

Shane Victorino - Love him, or more probably hate him because he’s on the Phillies, Victorino embodies a lot of qualities that Pagan could and should if he reaches his potential. Although Victorino had a down year last year at the plate, from 2006 though this year he has effectively used his athleticism at the plate and in the field. He won a Gold Glove the last three seasons and consistently seems to hit a touch below .300 with some pop and speed - 10 or more HRs  and 25 or more SBs every year since ‘07. Ignoring their differences in grit and intangible qualities, if Pagan could become the type of defenisve and offensive threat that Victorino is, which he seems to have the tools to do, Pagan would have a great career. 

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Fair or unfair, couldn’t Murphy, Pagan and Pelfrey go in those respective directions? Maybe through moves (or lack of moves) by the Mets during the 2011 off-season, we’ll see which direction Alderson and the front office thinks these players will go. 

Follow @andrewlbeaton on Twitter

Mets fans, this may be a special week. A sad week.

No, not because the childhoods of many feel a void without a Harry Potter movie to look to in the future. But, this in some sense is the end. The end of The New Mets.

The Mets trotted out a sad lineup yesterday, that included none of Jose Reyes (hamstring), Carlos Beltran (flu) and David Wright (back). The first two are expected to be back today, while rumors have been that depend on how the rest of the week goes, Wright could be back as early as Friday.

Friday is July 22nd. The trade deadline is July 31st.

The Mets play a game every day in that span. Soak it in, or at least I’m going to, because depending on how those games go and whether or not the Mets make a surprising run and convince the front office they’re contenders, it looks like Beltran can (and probably should) be traded.

It’s sad, it really is. With Beltran’s signing came a wave of optimism. He wasn’t just an All-Star centerfielder, he was a vision and hope for this organization’s future. He said it himself in his introductory press conference. He wanted to be a part of the “New Mets.”

2006 was, indeed, new. Although it ended prematurely in the NLCS, it was magical. The craziest part of it was that when it was over, Mets fans seemed to look at each other and say, “Oh well. At least this is the sort of team that will be making it this far for the next five years, we can wait.”

Wait we did, wait we have, but obviously these last five years weren’t what at least I envisioned after watching Beltran buckle at Adam Wainwright’s curveball. Two collapses and two middling seasons later, the Mets haven’t made the playoffs since 2006 and are now preparing to say goodbye to the centerfielder who joined them along with an ethos of optimism and confidence.

It’s weird to think that these next few days could be the last time Wright, Reyes, and Beltran put on a uniform together. That optimism and that confidence have long since faded, but they still make up the famed “core” that everybody knew would eventually bring us a ring.

And sure, Beltran being traded is far from a foregone conclusion. If Sandy Alderson isn’t offered a decent return, I sense he’ll keep him for the season and maybe even consider resigning him. Because, if he’s not getting a decent return, then Beltran is being undervalued. The Mets front office is all about value.

So, maybe I’m just a fan clinging onto a long-since faded dream of optimism. Maybe the New Mets are now the Old Mets and romanticizing it is foolish. But, in the nine games from July 22 through July 30th, maybe something magical can happen.

Maybe they’ll win eight and recapture the hearts of Mets fans. Maybe they’ll win nine and move from sellers to contenders. A lot can change in a week. The New Mets have unfortunately been victims of that, rather than the victors in those situations. In 2006 - and even to some extent 2007 - the Mets sat as comfortably atop the NL East as the Phillies do today. The Phillies look insurmountable right now.

But, so did the Mets, we know how that turned out.

Yes, the odds are low, percentage points small and faith probably smaller. But when Wright, Reyes and Beltran put on a Mets uniform together - hopefully this Friday - I won’t be ready to call it the end of an era quite yet. At least until I watch all the games, enjoy every last moment of it, I’m not going to admit it is over, even if it seems like an inevitibility.

And then, there’s here’s to hoping they rekindle some of that magic…because as long as these three are still together…who knows…I sure don’t…but I can’t wait to find out…

Follow @andrewlbeaton

Before the season started, Jose Reyes was coming off two seasons in which he played a combined total of 169 games.

Conversations (in the media) about signing him to an extension floated numbers like 5-years, $75 million, maybe a bit more. Nobody knew his exact value because of his streakiness and injury history, so some speculated it to be around there while some placed it a bit higher.

But then, the season started. What did Reyes do? Reyes hit. And hit. And hit. His MLB-leading .354 batting average is 26 points higher than Hunter Pence’s whose is second in the NL at .328. With every tick up in the batting average, his speculated free-agent contract followed suit.

Yet, there was a pop.

A pop in his hamstring, and a pop in the dream of Mets fans who were seeing one of the most dominant seasons for a leadoff hitter in recent memory. And now, whether or not the Reyes or Mets camp is willing to admit it, the conversation has changed. (And I’m not talking about “secret negotiations”)

The injury doesn’t neccesarily devalue him on the open market (though, I suspect it does on a small scale), but it’s a crude reminder of the inherent risks that go with contract negotiations. In a now-regular poll on Mets Blog, Matt Cerrone asks fans whether or not they would top a 7-year, $140M contract offer to Reyes. This offseason, Reyes and his agent probably would have accepted one year and $40M fewer in a heartbeat. Two weeks ago, they would have sneezed at such an offer.

Nonetheless, we’re here again after another Reyes injury unsure as to how much he’ll command on the open market.

The issue isn’t that Reyes is injury-prone - he’s had trouble staying healthy, but that isn’t a fair label for him; some of the injuries such as the Thyroid one have been freak in nature. Yet, it serves as a universal reminder of why it is so inherently dangerous to offer somebody a giant contract, regardless of how good he is. There can be a good case made for Reyes being the NL MVP to date, but baseball is a game with injuries, and nothing is worse than paying the big bucks to a guy who can’t play. The Mets, just as much as any franchise, have been victims of financial dead weight either due to over-valuation or injuries.

To reiterate - it’s not because of Reyes’ injury history in particular that they should be wary, just the fact that general fiscal prudence warns against signing anybody to that large of a contract. Just look at Johan Santana. From 2004-2008 he was the epitome of consistency and good health, starting in 33 or 34 games every season, only to now have his career in question.

The trade for Santana prospect-wise was still definitely a steal, but the long term contract the Mets gave him and fans didn’t think twice about questioning now is a major albatross.

The Mets and Sandy Alderson are unfortunately stuck in a tough situation. On the one hand, the fan base so clearly wants a change in philosophy from the Omar Minaya years in which handing out expensive, long-term contracts was the status quo. Yet, now, we sit here praying Alderson does just that in order to keep Reyes around, when (as good as he is, which is very good) it is likely he will be overpaid. That’s not a knock on his skill, just that the great majority of expensive, long-term contracts in baseball end up being very player-friendly.

And, the last thing the Mets need is more dead-weight on the books. Signing any player to a long-term contract, no matter how good he is, poses the chance for that.

This is not to say the Mets’ shouldn’t resign Reyes, because I hope they do just as much as the next person. It’s just that an injury, even a minor one, serves as a cruel reminder as to the realities of the game. It’s tough to think about because Reyes’s season has hardly seemed like reality; after all, when was the last time Mets fans could sit down and watch a player, and expect him to get multiple hits in a game? On some level, it feels like regardless of the money and risk, the Mets need him for those hits, that energy and the excitement he generates in the fan base.

Fortunately, this is also a cruel reminder to Reyes. Whether he’s worth $75M or $150M, one bad crack of a bone or snap in a muscle makes him worth $0. So, here’s to hoping he and the Mets find a reasonable middle-ground, because taking risks in life is only worth it when you’re doing it with the right people, right?

Watching Jose Reyes hit a single, and then another single, followed by a triple and a double in his four plate appearances last night, I really couldn’t imagine watching a lead-off presence display more dominance throughout a partial season. Numbers aside - though in a different argument, they could surely speak for themselves as Gary Cohen is quick to point out on Mets telecasts - the energy and spark he brings to the Mets’ lineup is unprecedented. 

As Reyes goes, so go the Mets. 

But, just as the numbers on Reyes’ batting average slowly ascend, so do the digits in his future bank account. He’s not a secret, and dominant seasons like this in contract years don’t go unrewarded. 

The Mets, their fans, Reyes and the media all know this. Re-sign him! Trade him! Let him walk! This sort of chatter has been the center of attention in the Mets-universe for weeks. Every day the discussion rages, without real progress. As Ted Berg wrote on TedQuarters yesterday, “I missed most of the goings-on in the Mets world last week, but it seems like the team is still playing around .500 baseball, the media is still producing a ton of speculative trade and contract nonsense with which bloggers and fans are running wild, and Jose Reyes is still awesome. So status quo.”

To me, as he plays better and that contract he earns inevitably becomes larger, it’s becoming clearer to me that there may be no right answer to this conundrum. 

If Reyes isn’t a Met next year, it would kill me just as I imagine it would kill every Mets fan to watch him hit lead-off and single-handedly take over games for another team. It doesn’t matter which team, though naturally some would be worse than others, but just the fact that he wouldn’t be sending the claw back to the Mets dugout is a present day nightmare.

He’s a homegrown talent. He plays a premium position. He’s dynamic, energetic and can light a fire under an offense better than anybody in baseball. It’s a dream come true. But, he’s also going to cost a boat-load of money.

So, at what point do you say enough? 

If his going price is significantly larger than $100 million - as many suspect it will be - does it make sense to pay him that when the great majority of those contracts prove to be financially irresponsible? Can you put a price on the heart, soul and engine of a team - which he has been this season? 

Realistically - he will get some type of contract like that. A contract that will be worth more than how he ends up performing over those say, five to seven years, but the price of a player isn’t how he will realistically play. His price is a dollar more than whatever some team is willing to fork over for him. 

Does it really make sense to dedicate such a large part of the payroll, for so many years, to a potentially fragile player whose skills would almost undoubtedly be worth far less than his contract towards the end of the deal? 

I’m not saying the answer is no.

Does it make sense to put a price on the face of a franchise? The fan-base doesn’t trust the owner, is frustrated with the team’s lack of success over the last few years, so the GM’s should get rid of the only reason why people turn on the TV and change it to SNY? 

Again, I don’t know the answer. 

Realistically - to me - there is no right answer. We would all be crushed to watch him elsewhere, regardless of the contract figure. But, part of me also knows this is why the front office doesn’t have financial flexibility to begin with. 

I feel for Sandy Alderson - I wouldn’t want to be the man to sign him to some mind-blowing contract. Nor would I want to be the one who’s responsible for picking up the phone when his agent calls and delivers the news as to where he’ll be playing next year - in a move that would break Mets’ fan’s hearts.

Who said being a GM is fun? 

How much longer will the Mets continue to trot out Josh Thole as their starting catcher? It’s not an easy question to ask - especially as a guy who roots hard for him - but the player is seemingly forcing the question into play. 

The organization doesn’t have a plethora of options, so starting him everyday and letting him work out his issues may be the best course of action for a little while longer - but when does he stop getting the nod on a daily basis? 

It’s frustrating because Thole is a very likable player. His approach? Gritty. His effort? Unwavering. His passion? Palpable.

But, we’re over two months into this young season when he’s had the starting job and the numbers don’t lie. 

Entering last night, 31 catchers accumulated more than 100 ABs. Here are some of Thole’s offensive stats and where he ranks among those 31 catchers:

• .593 OPS (28th)
• .234 BA (21st)
• 0 HR (T-30th)
• 7 Extra-base hits (T-26th)
• 17 RBI (T-17th)
• 9 Runs (T-28th)

So, it’s pretty clear that it hasn’t been good on the offensive end. Defensively? It doesn’t get much better:

• 7 Passed Balls (Most in MLB)
• 8/38 CS (21%)

And then there is the question of how he is as a “receiver” - how he calls a game and works with a given pitcher. Some people don’t put a ton of weight into the statistic of a pitcher’s ERA with a given catcher, and if you’re one of those people, ignore the below. I don’t know how much they mean, especially given the minuscule sample size over two months, but here’s a quick Thole vs. Ronny Paulino ERA comparison with four Mets SPs. (Note: this does not include Dillon Gee because he’s only thrown one inning to Paulino).   

• Mike Pelfrey: 9.56 vs. 4.28
• Chris Capuano: 5.70 vs. 3.93
• R. A. Dickey: 4.07 vs. 6.57
• Jon Niese: 4.19 vs. 1.50

But, what bothers me more than any statistic or split is the way he looks. The passed balls are bad passed balls - moments where his immaturity as a defender hemorrhages through the television set. He chokes up at the plate, but still looks overmatched on too many pitches. He’s had a few decent hits for RBIs, but it seems like the best case scenario of most of his at-bats would be a slap the other way for a single.

And to be that type of player you have to be at least a passable defender (which he hasn’t been thus far) and very good at slap hitting (a skill not supported by a .234 batting average). 

Furthermore, what’s frustrating is despite all the injuries the Mets are getting decent production from everywhere in the lineup but catcher and left field. And, whether or not we like it, Jason Bay is in it for the long haul. 

If Thole doesn’t begin to turn it around soon, how much longer do Terry Collins/Sandy Alderson give him? 

If Jose Reyes isn’t on the Mets next season, leaving via free agency or traded for prospects, the front office should seriously consider getting rid of David Wright, Johan Santana, and others too.

Let’s take a step back.

Four weeks ago, I dished out my thoughts on the merits of trading vs. keeping Jose Reyes. In case you don’t feel like rereading it, the point – in short – was that unless they are blown away with a package of prospects, Reyes is the sort of luxury a big budget team like the Mets can afford to have, even if he is inevitably going to be overpaid.

This is the sequel to that, in which I’ll discuss what the team should do iff (if and only if) they trade Reyes or let him walk; I’m not advocating that course of action, I’m explaining its consequences. I think this is the type of sequel like The Dark Knight was to Batman Begins, so even though it’s far more grim (even I can’t believe I’m trying to logically explain why in some scenario it might make sense for three of my favorite players to wear different uniforms), and probably slightly too long, you’re happy for having read it because it brings up some interesting ideas.

To me, losing Reyes whether it is via trade or free agency is a signal that the Mets are entering a rebuilding mode. Not just rebuilding for another year, but for two or three. Over the long run, the $15 million or so that would be spent on the dynamic shortstop annually could definitely be spent better: on the draft, farm system, better starting pitching and so forth.

Those benefits, while very real, are only tangible beginning a few years from now, not in 2012 or 2013. And, over these next years, the approximated $15 million can’t be spent much better – an exciting, homegrown talent whose athleticism lends itself to a large ballpark like Citi Field both offensively and defensively is far preferable to whatever that same money buys in terms of free agents.

Thus, it seems to me that getting rid of Reyes is an indication the team will not be a serious playoff contender over the next couple seasons. And, if we’re not winning in 2012 or 2013, why hold onto and pay Wright and Santana?

Johan Santana is currently 32. Next year and the year after - the last years of his contract before the team has a $5.5 million buyout of his $25 million option in 2014 - are probably the two best years left of his career after he spends the rest of this season recovering and building strength back up from rotator cuff surgery. It’s an unsure process that will probably make him untradeable at this deadline, but this off-season? It’s worth finding out. Nobody will want to pay him his full salary over the next couple seasons, but if the Mets are willing to eat some of that contract I’d bet the buyers will be plentiful.  

Come this off-season, Wright will turn 29. A few years down the road, his best years will start be behind him. His swing has clearly been affected by the pressure of hitting home runs in large confines of Citi Field and while his heart, dedication and willingness to be the face of a struggling franchise are beyond admirable it really seems like he could benefit from some sort of change, perhaps one of scenery.

I guess my idea is, if we’re going to rebuild: why half-ass it?

The core of Reyes-Wright-Santana was built to be at its best through the length of Santana’s contract, give or take a year or two depending on when the players start hitting their decline. If they commit to dismantling that by rebuilding and letting Reyes go, they’ll have a tough time winning next year and the year after, though I can’t say exactly what Sandy Alderson has planned. Maybe he has some tricks up his sleeve that makes all of this moot, but we’ll see. 

In the years after that, Santana and Wright (less so, but still to a significant degree) will not be part of the future winning solution. So, in this scenario, wouldn’t it make sense to trade all of them and get value while they can? And be locked and loaded around Ike Davis, Jon Niese and a farm system that has been infused with young talent from the trades, the existing talent and improved draft strategy under the careful management of Alderson and his crew? It’s heart-breaking to admit, but it might be true. 

But, all things being considered, I still hope they hold onto Reyes. 

Follow @andrewlbeaton on Twitter

The Mets have, somehow, out-The Apple’d The Apple, which is a hilarious, The Onion-esque satirical website that’s all about our favorite baseball team. Can we be honest here and say that the MVP of the Mets so far this offseason is hilarity?

So what are we even talking about here? Press play and see. You’ll enjoy quite the promotional video for 2011 Citi Field tickets, that was produced to look like a piece of SNY Breaking News. It even has a “press conference.” Talk about your red herring! So the burning question: who’s the best actor in this… piece? Is it Kevin? Sandy? Terry? Or is it anybody who doesn’t laugh while they watch this?

You have to hand it to them: they really are trying with this PR stuff. Most of it has been completely spot-on, but this? A tad silly.

I bet that’s not even Sandy’s office! But that’s just a nitpick. Enjoy, folks.

(Source: readtheapple.com)