One heavily discussed topic of late is how a number of players on the Mets have something to prove. If not something to prove, they are in a nebulous area where it is unclear whether they deserve to be starters, platoon players, bench players, or some combination of the three.
Unfortunately one of those is Daniel Murphy, who regularly looks uncomfortable in the field but was showing why he belongs in the bigs with his bat this year, hitting .320 in just under 400 ABs prior to going down for the season with a leg injury.
Another one is Mike Pelfrey. Once a top draft pick and an annual tease on the hearts of Mets fans, he sometimes looks like he could be a very good middle of the rotation starter and innings-eater, while sometimes the 6-foot-7 righty looks more lost than talented.
A third is Angel Pagan who had a miserable start to the season hitting .159 in April prior to hitting the disabled list. He has been inconsistent since but has the potential to hit well from both sides of the plate, be athletic in the field, steal bases and provide pop as he has shown with long balls in two consecutive games entering play yesterday.
Which directions could these three guys go? Below is a career comparison - a favorable one and an unfavorable one - for each of these three players, showing how these three players with their skill-sets could head in such different directions.
Daniel Murphy
Jason Philliips (unfavorable) - Remember him? He played the majority of the Mets’ games at 1B in 2003 and catcher in 2004. At 27 years old in 2003, he batted 5th in about half of his plate appearances and finished the season hitting .298 with an .815 OPS. Middle-of-the-order linchpin of the future, right? Wrong - in 2004, he hit .218 with a measly amount of power and was subsequently traded to the Dodgers for the man, the myth, Kazuhisa Ishii. Like Murphy, he was never particularly deft in the field but led fans to ignoring that through his strong 2003 season that seemingly showed he was a good enough major league hitter to make up for it. Hopefully Murphy is a better hitter - and he probably is - but the risk still exists for putting too much faith in a guy who hasn’t played a full season and doesn’t have a definite position.
Dmitri Young (favorable) - Now, not everybody would like to be favorably compared to Dmitri Young, the man who is listed on FanGraphs as weighing 298 lbs. Realistically though, if Murph’s career ends up like Young’s, he and fans should both be happy. In the 10-year span from 1998-2007 with the Reds, Tigers and Nationals, Young played above 100 games in eight of those seasons. Twice, he was an All-Star and regularly hit near .300 with an OPS above .800. In the 2003 season with the Tigers, he hit .297 with 29 HRs and a .909 OPS - numbers I think any fan would take from a full season of Murphy. Like Murphy, Young was a poor fielder with no clear position, playing 1B, 3B, LF and RF but made up for it by being a consistently good hitter.
Mike Pelfrey
Kris Benson - Once upon a time, Kris Benson was the first pick of the MLB draft. With an ERA lower than 4.00 just once in his career, he was still always able to sell teams on the fact that he had potential, and stayed in the league through last year because of that. Every time he made a good start, he was finally starting to scratch his potential but every time he pitched poorly it was some catastrophic regression. Realistically, it probably just meant he was mediocre through and through. Pelfrey as he is now is a servicable Major League starter, just like how Benson was for the majority of his career. But people always expected Benson to be more because he was a top pick and the same has happened to Pelfrey - even if he may be a decent back of the rotation starter, he may never be the opening day front line guy that the Mets once expected him to be.
Derek Lowe - Lowe’s career has been many places, and Pelfrey’s career path will never follow it exactly. Lowe was an elite closer in 2000, and transitioned to being a full-time starter afterwards. That said, as a starter Pelfrey ideally could end up like Lowe. He has had his ups and downs as a starter - 21 wins in 2002 with a 2.58 ERA with only 14 in 2004 at a 5.42 clip - but has always been a reliable rotation piece since then even if he hasn’t been an ace. I don’t think even the most ardent of the Big-Pelf-Optimists expect him to be an ace, but if he could be the type of sinker-balling-innings-eater-who-gets-the-job-done-even-without-striking-guys-out type of pitcher that Lowe has been for the Dodgers and Braves since 2005, he’d be an important part of any winning Mets club.
Angel Pagan
Coco Crisp - Crisp is far cry from a bad player, but he is also a distance away from what many expected he could be. Once a big up-and-comer for the Red Sox and then the Indians, he has never turned out to be more than talented, athletic, but mediocre. He hasn’t hit more than 10 HRs since 2005 or knocked in more than 60 RBIs. He’s a very good defender, which makes it worth putting him in the lineup everyday. Pagan isn’t quite there yet defensively - he often takes bad routes and misplays balls - but he may get there with his athleticism. Yet, in terms of skills at the dish Pagan will ultimately be a disappointment if he cannot have a better career at the plate than Crisp. He showed the potential for being better last season, but with his regression in 2011 it seems far from a sure thing.
Shane Victorino - Love him, or more probably hate him because he’s on the Phillies, Victorino embodies a lot of qualities that Pagan could and should if he reaches his potential. Although Victorino had a down year last year at the plate, from 2006 though this year he has effectively used his athleticism at the plate and in the field. He won a Gold Glove the last three seasons and consistently seems to hit a touch below .300 with some pop and speed - 10 or more HRs and 25 or more SBs every year since ‘07. Ignoring their differences in grit and intangible qualities, if Pagan could become the type of defenisve and offensive threat that Victorino is, which he seems to have the tools to do, Pagan would have a great career.
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Fair or unfair, couldn’t Murphy, Pagan and Pelfrey go in those respective directions? Maybe through moves (or lack of moves) by the Mets during the 2011 off-season, we’ll see which direction Alderson and the front office thinks these players will go.
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struggled at the plate and in the field (type his name into a Google search and look at the auto-fill options. “Faceplant” is one of them). His value took a little bit of a hit, and he wasn’t spoken about too much for the rest of the season. This spring, however, has been Fernando’s coming out party. Unfortunately, however, there’s a pretty slim chance we see him patrolling center field at Citi anytime soon, with Angel Pagan likely getting the nod. Martinez has not been playing center in Florida, and I’m guessing the logic is that they’ll keep him at AAA to get uninterrupted playing time while Pagan keeps Carlos Beltran’s spot warm for him. Might he end up being a blue chip in a trade deal down the line?
having a very productive and impressive spring, basically using one pitch to strike out 8 in 9.1 innings pitched. Talk about efficient. There are guys who, when pitching, are just fun to watch, and he’s one of them. It’s easy to see his potential, and his “I’m ready now” attitude is always a plus. Thing is, the bullpen does not look like a weakness on this year’s Mets team, but manager Jerry Manuel, perhaps in a bid to save his job, insists that Mejia be a part of it when the squad comes north anyway, and that’s the unfortunate part. I believe he should be in the minors to get some more seasoning as a starter, which would potentially make him much more valuable to this team down the road. Instead, he’ll probably be pitching in the 8th inning, which certainly might be an upgrade from Bobby Parnell, but in a role that might interfere with his development, especially if he hits a snag and starts struggling against some bonified Major League lineups.
